Politics

Australia Covid live news update: NSW records 3,763 new cases, Victoria 1,503 cases; confidence in interstate travel plummets; national cabinet to meet | Australia news

I wish to address selective and misleading media reporting about ongoing modelling used to inform decision making by governments. Recent modelling, both in Australia and internationally, presents a range of potential scenarios as a result of the Omicron variant. While modelling is an important tool to help guide decision making, it is just one of a range of tools and cannot be viewed in isolation. Modelling helps to prepare for all scenarios and to mitigate the risk associated with the pandemic.

A preliminary scenario, of many being considered to help inform decision making, presents one of the worst case of all potential scenarios including assumptions that the Omicron variant is as severe as the Delta variant, an absence of hospital surge capacity, a highly limited booster program, no change to baseline public health and social measures and an absence of spontaneous behaviour change in the face of rising case numbers. None of these five assumptions represent the likely state of events, let alone all of them together, therefore presenting that scenario as the likely scenario that will occur is highly misleading.

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